#059 Climate Migration Has Begun
Adventures in Sustainable Living Podcast
Episode 59
Climate Migration Has Begun
Since the founding of St. Augustine, Florida by Spanish colonist in 1565, and the establishment of the first English settlement in Jamestown, Virginia in 1607, America has always been viewed as the land of opportunity.
Economic opportunity, political freedom, and religious freedom were the initial draw to come to the United States. But in the 20th century immigration was stimulated by globalization.
Now in the 21st century, there is a completely different reason that people still want to come to the US. So if you want to find out the reason for this, then listen to this episode called Climate Migration Has Begun.
Welcome back everyone to the Adventures in Sustainable Living podcast. This is your host Patrick and this is E59 which is called Climate Migration Has Begun.
If you look at the early history of the United States, you will find that literally millions of immigrants left their own homes to find something not readily available in their own country, which was simply the opportunity to find prosperous work and succeed economically. Additionally many people sought to escape political and religious persecution. It was these early immigrants that formed the original 13 colonies and it was these immigrants that fought in the American Revolution in order to defend their new homeland.
But if you look forward to the 20th century, a lot of the draw to come to the US was actually the result of globalization. As a result international travel and banking became much simpler. Major advances in technology, transportation, communications, and media has indeed turned the world into a very small place.
But this globalization has also created a more disparate difference between developed and undeveloped nations. Many developing nations still struggle with the ability to provide a stable economy. Consequently, it is difficult for families to sustain sufficient capital to care for themselves and have a decent quality of life. With the availability of modern technology it offers people the ability to view what life is like in another country. And the end result is that it creates what I call “compare and despair”.
Consequently the United States is once again viewed as the land of opportunity. And certainly we have taken advantage of that by maintaining an enormous migrant work force that comes here for seasonal jobs in order to send money home to their families. Additionally, in many countries throughout the world, oppression, brutality, torture, civil rights abuses and killing of civilians are still common place. People fear for their health and safety, flee their own country and want to enter the United States. And we have seen this most recently with large groups emigrants from Latin American countries walking to the border.
But in the 21st century I think we will see a completely different reason for people to come to the United States. Now I know that there are a lot of differing opinions on immigration which of course creates a lot of controversy. In fact one of our most recent presidents starting building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico. But I truly think we are going to have to change some of our policies simply out of necessity. And the reason for this will be climate migration.
Now, just to be clear on one thing. I am going to use the term climate migrant. But you should know this is not a term that is used in any sort of official government policy nor is it used in the realm of academia. Climate migrants are those that leave their homes or home countries due to environmental stressors such as droughts, heavy flooding, severe storms, changing rainfall patterns, or rising sea levels. Such factors make their homes uninhabitable and thus they feel pressured to leave their homes behind.
Presently this is seen most frequently in countries that are often the poorest and most vulnerable. These countries often have little ability to adapt, they are located in a particularly vulnerable geographic locations or they simply have more fragile ecosystem. Additionally, as was seen with many Latin Americans walking toward the U.S. border, it is often the poorest and most vulnerable people who lack the needed resources to leave their home country and go abroad.
The bottom line is when you combine climate stressors with environmental, economic, social and even physical vulnerabilities, the end result is a degradation of food, water, and economic security. This in turn results in a loss of any source of income, potentially a weakened government structure, political instability and conflict.
And like it or not, climate migration is already happening. Presently, it is estimated that globally nearly 30 million people annually are displaced from their homes due to extreme weather events and conflict.
Furthermore, at this time about 1% of our planet is essentially uninhabitable due to extreme heat. It is estimated that by the year 2070, that will increase to nearly 19%. What most people do not realize is that for much of human history people have lived in areas where food was abundant due to a surprisingly narrow range in temperatures. But according to a study published the in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, our planet may see an increase in temperature in the next 50 years that is greater than any seen in the last 6,000 years.
Even the World Bank points out the fact that unless urgent action is taken, by the year 2050 more than 140 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America may be migrating to other areas of their own country due to decreased crop productivity, shortage of water, and rising sea levels.
For example, in north Africa, it is estimated that 65% of the farmable land has already been degraded. The combined affects of incredible population growth and extreme drought has resulted in the deaths of over 100,000 people. The story is similar in South Asia. Nearly 8.5 million people have already left. Furthermore, climate scientist are now realizing that their own predictions for future population displacement due to rising sea levels have been grossly underestimated.
Now at this point I have focused much of my attention on other countries. But don’t think for a minute that the United States is at all immune to what is happening.
In previous episodes I’ve already talked about how two of the largest man made reservoirs in the western United States are drying up, that being Lake Meade and Lake Powell. This drainage system supplies water to approximately 40 million people. That does not even take into account the ranchers, farmers, and other food producers that are affected due to as much as 90% of the western U.S. being under drought conditions.
The state of California has seen more than its share of challenging situations. California has experienced a 5 year drought with forests and grasslands turning into nothing more than a giant tender box. Numerous fires have been sparked by electrical storms as well as other risks. At one point California Gas and Electric shut down the power grid as a preventative measure. A temperature of 130 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded in Death Valley, with the hottest temperature ever recorded being 134 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 56.7 degrees Celsius. At times, as many as 900 fires have forced over 100,000 people from their homes.
But then let’s take a look at the other end of the country. In August of 1992, Hurricane Andrew reduced parts of Florida to nothing more than a giant landfill. Insurance companies paid out $16 billion in claims. Many of these companies saw the likelihood that this would happen again and completely left the state.
But the problem with Americans is that we do not respond to climate threats like most people in the rest of the world. It is a very natural part of life in rural areas of underdeveloped countries, if people face drought conditions and crop failures, they simply move somewhere else that is more stable and resilient. With no money to solve the problem, often migration is simply a question of survival.
By comparison, at least so far, Americans are insulted against many of the challenges due to climate change. We are tremendously separated from the very infrastructure that keeps us alive while the average person in Kenya looks at their dry well and sees dehydration and possibly death. As Americans we live in a culture that thinks every problem can be solved by money or technology.
Consequently, as the water supply for over 40 million people in the American west has slowly declined over the past 33 years, the population of Nevada has doubled and 1.5 million more people have moved to Phoenix. Meanwhile as Florida has become an outstanding example of the threat of rising sea levels, more than 5 million additional people have moved into the state resulting in a historic boom in building and real estate.
And this sense that money and technology can overcome anything does nothing but fuel even more reckless development. Furthermore, people think if that is not enough, we can always depend on the government. Meanwhile, we are already poised to see how climate change will continue to produce a surge of disasters that sooner or later will make us realize that the climate is changing the rules of engagement.
As people in rural areas are likely to be the most affected by climate change, many of them will migrate to the city. In 1950 less than 65 percent of Americans lived in cities. It is projected that by 2050 only 10 percent of Americans will will live in rural areas. This has the possibility of producing such rapid and chaotic urbanization that it will push any city to the capacity to provide even basic services. Unemployment will most likely escalate, competition for services will increase, both of which will fuel a widening gap between the rich and the poor.
If the drought in the American west is not enough, the federal government projects that extreme water shortages will be ubiquitous west of the Missouri. Additionally, the Memphis Sands Aquifer, which is a critical water supply for Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana, is over drawn by hundreds of millions of gallons everyday. Furthermore, the Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies almost 30% of our irrigation ground water, will likely be depleted by the end of the century.
A Two Sided Coin
Now I know that this sounds like a pretty stark reality. But the good news is that nearly half of Americans now think that climate should be a top political priority and 75% believe that climate change is indeed at the crisis level.
But the big question is where will all of these people go? Now I know that immigration into the United States is a hotly debated topic. Obviously our former president was against it as he was dead set on building a wall between the United States and Mexico.
Sooner or later our government will be faced with the dilemma of deciding which communities to try and save and which ones will be abandoned. Similarly, we will have to make a collective decision about our immigration policies. Contrary to the beliefs of our former president, climate migration could bring great opportunity.
But the bottom line is that we are going to have to make a choice. Nations in more northern latitudes can allow climate migrants to move across their borders or they can close their borders and literally trap hundreds of millions of people in places that are increasingly unlivable.
But we do have the ability to provide relief from such a crisis as more and more people look to the United States as a land of opportunity. But such a move will not only require a huge measure of good will but also extremely careful political management as well as an enormous amount of preparation and planning. Unfortunately, the potential alternative, as the United Nations and other organizations warn, is to sit and watch the governments in the countries most severely affected essentially dissolve into chaos and war.
But, it does not have to be this way. If you are a person that is strongly nationalistic and oppose such a migration into the United States, I would beg you to look at this from a different perspective. It is projected that the number of Americans ages 65 and greater will more than double over the next 40 years. Such a demographic shift will affect economic growth as well as patterns of work and retirement.
Regardless of the reason of people immigrating to the United States, this could actually be a great opportunity. Bringing new people into an aging work force could be a boon for the economy. But we have to make a choice because if countries decide to essentially close their borders, we will produce nothing less than staggering human suffering. There is no doubt that many political battles will be fought over this issue. But careful political management, early policy changes and proper planning can lead to a drastically different future.
Presently, and this comes directly out of a report produced at the White House, the United States does not consider its international human rights obligations to require extending international protection to individuals fleeing the impacts of climate change. But we could change some of our political policies and allow humanitarian visas, labor mobility and educational programs, as well as other alternative pathways to permanent residency in the United States.
If there was ever a time that we were provided with an obvious reminder that we live in a global and highly connect society, the COVID 19 pandemic made that clear. Obviously no country could tackle that problem on its own. The pandemic clearly posed a challenge to our health care systems and our ability to work together as a community of nations.
But what most do not realize is that the success of our efforts is closely linked to the health and welfare of even the most marginalized members of our society. The same is true of our response to global climate change. Our successful response is linked to the health and well being of even the most marginalized countries in our global community.
In my previous episode, I quoted something from the NASA website on climate change. I will repeat that here.
“The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible on the timescale of people alive today, and will worsen in the decades to come.”
What that means is that people are now on the move and it will continue to happen. And we will even see this in our own backyard. But most humans are amazingly inept at forethought and planning. It always has to be a 911 situation before we will do something about it.
There is absolutely no doubt that we all still have a great window of opportunity to produce a much different future for ourselves as well as the people of other nations. There is no doubt that climate migration will affect each one of us in some way.
Remember that the pillars of sustainability are economy, people, and environment. The changing environment will no doubt affect our economy and it is already affecting millions of people around the world. But as with so many things in life that stress us all, the outcome is more heavily weighted by your response. And it is our response that will make the difference in whether or not the United States continues to be the land of opportunity for all of our citizens as well as for those that will soon be knocking at our doors.
This is your host Patrick signing off for now. Always remember to live sustainably because this is how we build a better future.
Resources
America: The Land of Opportunity
5 Facts on Climate Migrants, by United Nations University
Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration, published by the US government
Future of the Human Climate Niche, by the National Academy of Sciences
Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, by the World Bank
How Climate Migration Will Reshape America, by the New York Times
