The Way Forward: Redefining Progress and Prosperity

Adventures in Sustainable Living Podcast

Episode 111

The Way Forward: Redefining Progress and Prosperity

Our Earth is about 4 1/2 billion years old. After all this time, suddenly the Earth is under a tremendous amount of pressure, and it is us. This is because over the past century we have witnessed astounding growth in the human population.

Partially due to this population growth we have been borrowing from the bank of Earth’s resources for over 60 years, which means we are using resources much faster than what the Earth can naturally replenish them. Looking forward at various predictions of what life on Earth is going to be like by the end of this century, the question becomes how are we going to survive.  

If you want to know more listen to this episode called The Way Forward: Redefining Progress and Prosperity. 

Welcome back everyone to the Adventures in Sustainable Living podcast. This is your host Patrick and this is E111 which is called The Way Forward: Redefining Progress and Prosperity. 

I truly want to emphasize several important points in this episode in order to convince you that we need to redefine our priorities. I truly believe if we do not do that then we are going to see significant human misery by the end of this century. By the end of this episode I hope to convince you to make some changes to your own priorities. What I want to cover is the following:

-A few words about our tremendous population growth. 

-Then our current version of economic prosperity and the challenges that has created

-Survivability versus sustainability

-The end result of our short-sightedness

-We are actually aware of the problem

-Coming to grips with reality 

-The way forward: how we are going to survive this century  

-Then I am going to talk about what may very well be in our future if we do not take great steps to challenge the status quo. 

And I can tell you that some of my listeners are going to disagree with me about the changes I believe need to be made. And the things I am going to talk about are just the tip of the iceberg. 

Our Tremendous Population Growth

In the year 1 C.E. the Earth’s population was about 250 million. Approximately 1800 years later, we reached a population of 1 billion. About 120 years after that, 2 billion. Then about 100 years later, Earth’s population reached 7 billion people, and we are still growing. Our planet is now under great pressure and it is from the overwhelming presence of humanity and our insatiable desire for resources. This of course is related to our constant focus on growth. 

Current Version of Economic Prosperity 

Many people would argue that in order for there to be economic prosperity there must be on-going progress. But often times our idea of progress is a constant and steady rate of growth. But this reality creates some inherent challenges which at this point in time is evident almost on a daily basis. For example, something we now hear about regularly is concerns over climate change. This is the direct result of green house gas emissions, which is related to our population growth and our underlying ideology of prosperity. But let’s take just a brief moment and consider where we are with that.  

Part of what we now see with climate change is increased frequency of severe weather events. Scientist have now published over 400 peer reviewed studies looking at extreme weather around the world. Of the 504  extreme weather events and trends that were observed, 71% were found to be more likely or more severe due to human caused climate change. In the 2010s there were 123 separate billion dollar disasters. But in the 1980s there was only twenty-nine. 

We have reached a point that for many of us it is no longer a question of if we will be impacted by a natural disaster but when. We are now forced into thinking in terms of survivability versus sustainability. 

Survivability versus Sustainability

Hundreds of years ago survival was on the forefront of our existence on a daily basis. In our modern culture I dare say that 95% of our population ever gives it a thought. This is painfully obvious by the dismal few people who are actually prepared for an emergency much less a survival situation. If you do not believe me try making a trip to the supermarket when I major snow storm is predicted. The COVID shutdowns and stay home orders are not in the too distant past and I clearly remember going to the supermarket and seeing empty shelves due to all the panic buying. 

Clearly there are times we when go into survival mode. However, true survival situations are not very common and it is usually the result of someone unexpectedly finding themselves in a situation they did not anticipate.  Most true survival situations last less than one week, on average 72 hours.  But try telling that to all the folks in the super dome after Hurricane Katrina when it took FEMA 7 days to bring in fresh water.  

Honestly if humanity does not change how we are managing our resources, there will come a time when we actually find ourselves in survival mode. The increased frequency of severe weather events alone brings that possibility to the forefront. 

All of that said, survivability and sustainability are actually closely related but there are some distinct differences. I don’t want to spend too much time on the subject of survival because that is not the focus of this episode. But, I do to say a few words so that you can understand to difference between survival and sustainability and how they are related. 

Survivability defines your ability to live though a short-term situation. A temporary survival situation could be a natural disaster, being lost in the woods, or being trapped in your vehicle during a major snow storm. The point being is that you only need to live for a short period of time. This only requires you to assemble a survival kit with gear, food, water, and other supplies. 

When it some to survival it is imperative to remember the survival rule of threes:

•  You can survive three minutes without air or in ice cold water.
•  You can survive three hours without shelter in a harsh environment.
•  You can survive three days without water provided you have adequate shelter from the environment.
•  You can survive three weeks without food if you have an adequate amount of water and proper shelter.
•  

What is key here is that you develop some basic skills and confidence so that you can think for yourself and improvised in a difficult situation. What I think is an interesting coincidence is that it has been in the last three centuries that humanity has produced most of the changes that now push us to the brink of survival of our species. 

For the sake of comparison, sustainability is simply survival on a long term basis because you have to stay alive over a long period of time. Consequently, the survival rule of threes simply does not apply. In a survival situation you are targeting a short-term outcome. With sustainability we are targeting a long-term life style. And 

truly environmental sustainability is one of the biggest issue facing humanity this century. 

The End Result of our Short Sighted Outlook

The problems we have now created is due to the fact that we are clearly targeting short-term gains, as opposed to long-term sustainability. We have a tendency to think only in terms of the span of our life time and typically even shorter than that. For example, I think it is rare to find a person that is already thinking about what they are going to be doing ten years from now and how what they are doing now actually affects that outcome. I also think it is rare for most large corporations to have a solid vision of the future of the company even 20 years from now much less the economic and ecological impact of their business. 

This short sighted outlook is exactly what has resulted in irreparable changes in the entire global ecosystem. We have made significant advances in technology yet we still have hungry people on the planet, people with little to no access to clean water much less clean air to breathe. Land degradation has affected every country in the world. 

Virgin territory on planet Earth no longer exist. There is no part of the Earth that is untouched by the effects of human activity and the pollution that follows. Our ever increasing population has put a great strain on the planet. Our efforts at urbanization, industrialization, and our modern agricultural practices have polluted the water and soil on the entire planet. 

The amount of non-degradable waste is accumulating by the minute. Forever chemicals are contaminating our water supply, food chain, resulting in rapid species loss and resulting in yet to be determined damage to every human on the planet. And the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is now estimated to be 1.6 million square kilometer which is roughly twice the size of the state of Texas.

Furthermore, our natural resources are being rapidly depleted and those that are left are contaminated with toxic chemicals and micro plastics thus bringing the survival of future generations in jeopardy. Generations of exploitation is now threatening the very life support systems we depend on for survival.

We Are Actually Aware of the Problem 

The thing to realize is that it’s not as if we are unaware of the problem. In previous episodes I have discussed a lot of different topics related to this same sort of thing. Additionally several decades ago a proclamation was made by some of the world’s top scientists stating, 

“a great change in our stewardship of the earth and the life on it is required if vast human misery is to be avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be irretrievably mutilated.” 

A dozen or so years later the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment’s gave an equally stark warning when they stated that “human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of the earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted.” Furthermore scientific evidence to support these statements are plentiful. I discussed this at length in E92 The Science of Climate Change. 

Yet the best science in the world has done little to stimulate any sort of decisive policy change. Not a single big business, no national government, no prominent leader, and certainly no international agency has stepped up to publicly advocate, much less actually implement, any sort of policy sufficiently strong enough to match the needed changes that are painfully obvious based on our best science. 

Throughout history there have been defining moments for humanity. This is one of them. There is no doubt that implementing environmental sustainability will decide our future. We have to balance our continued population growth against the uses and abuses of our natural resources. Our modern culture continues to languish in the comforts of economic growth and prosperity while future generations are facing a polluted environment with scarce natural resources. We are neglecting our responsibility to leave this planet as a self sustaining ecosystem capable of ensuring the survival of future generations of people as well as all other species on the planet. 

Coming to Grips with Reality

The simple fact is that we have to come to grips with reality. Not only are we in the midst of a self-made crisis but we are also equipped to actually solve this problem. Relative to other advanced invertebrates, humans have an unmatched capacity for evidence-based reasoning. We have the unique ability to engage in long-term planning. We have the capacity for moral judgement and the ability to feel compassion for other people and other species.

But, despite our unique capabilities and mounting scientific evidence, our strong focus on constant economic growth blinds us to the fact that we need to completely alter the ideology of mainstream society. 

But, let’s say that all changed. What if suddenly the light went on and we all said “Holy smokes we have to change and we have to do it now.” What would that actually look like? 

The Way Forward

Now what I want to do is to get down to the nuts and bolts of the actual reality of our way forward and how we are going to survive this century. What would we actually have to do? Well, the list is quite long of course so I am going to only hit some of the major highlights. 

Now I am going to say up front that some of the solution I propose  here may sound a bit radical and some of you are going to have objections. But, in the end I am also going to point out the what is in our future if we do nothing and simply maintain the status quo. 

So, here are a few things in my opinion that we need to focus on:  

-On a regular basis we have to assess the impact of human activities on regional ecosystems and the planet as a whole.

-According to the Business Council for Sustainable Development there needs to be a 90% reduction in the use of materials, energy usage and rate of environmental degradation by industrialized nation by 2040 in order for there to be sufficient resources to meet the growing world population and stay within the planets ecological means.

-Sustainable agriculture and organic farming would have to be brought to the forefront. Chemicals would have to be replaced with bio-stimulants and bio-pesticides. Doing so would help to guarantee our food security.

-We have to develop green fuels and novel energy sources in order to eliminate fossil fuels and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 

-We have to manage our polluted environment perhaps by using biotechnology as a means of safe degradation of all the toxin chemical. More than likely that would require the use of microorganism and phytoremediation techniques in order to restore polluted habitats. 

-We have to balance economic growth with unprecedented rates of decarbonization. This alone may require a planned global economic recession. 

-We have to recognize that our lack of sustainability is actually a global problem. No one nation can achieve sustainability on its own. Our global social construct of integration, consolidation, and relentless material growth is actually a product of the human mind and can be deconstructed and replaced with a different modality. 

-We have to focus on greater social equity and economic security. This may mean the construction of a more steady state economy that guarantees the basic needs of every human being on the planet. This means that innovation would be necessary. Economic emphasis would have to shift away from quantitative growth, meaning more is better, and move towards equity and qualitative development. Indeed this would mean a smaller economy as well as a 50% reduction in the use of fossil fuels and natural resources on a global basis. 

-Wealthy countries would actually have to decrease their rate of consumption by as much as 80% in order to balance out much needed and justifiable growth in developing countries. This would mean an equity oriented economy in which we would have to shift away from our competitive individualism, greed, and self interest and focus more on community, cooperation and the global common interests of surviving with dignity. 

-We need to end the government subsidies for the private sector such as the corn ethanol industry and the fossil fuel industry. This is the only way that everyone will know the true cost of the resources we utilize daily. 

-And following that perhaps we even need to go as far as forcing the private sector into public service because quite honestly any further development on a global scale needs to be directly tied to sustainability. 

-We have to take measures to control our population growth. Perhaps this means government assisted family planning programs. Simply waiting several years longer to start a family or having one less child can have a significant impact. 

-Since our lack of sustainable behavior is in fact a global problem, we need a global re-education program in order to convince people of the magnitude of the problem and the dire need for change. This would go a long way to prevent “pushback” or resistance from the general population. 

Summary

Now, I know this sounds like a lot and likely right about now you are thinking I must be crazy. The shear magnitude of the global culture shift that needs to be made is absolutely incredible and will require time, re-education, massive redirection of funds, and will have to be a collective international effort like we have never seen before. 

And if you are questioning why I would advocate forcing such things on people, then take a look at where we are now. The development of our massive consumer culture is by far the most successful social engineering project ever developed. Convincing people that more is better, the more you eat the better, the more you spend is better, takes time, money, advertising and social education. This same is true for convincing people of the need to eliminate our consumer culture except this time our survival is dependent on the success. People have to be convinced there is a positive vision for our future on this planet and that is not going to happen by maintaining the status quo. 

I still find it incredible when I come across articles that downplay the need for a transition to renewal energy. These publications talk about how expensive it is and how unreliable it is as a power source. Meanwhile we operate under a decrepit national power gird that is now prone to a high rate of failure. Not only that, compared to the cost of a power generating plant that runs off of fossil fuels, it is now less expensive to build and maintain a solar generating plant. Furthermore, whenever a fossil fuel plant is shut down people and prominent politicians relentlessly complain as if a step in the right direction is going to result in our ultimate demise. 

When large companies go public about their efforts to change their policies to something more sustainable, people complain and criticize. For example, the Walmart corporation started their company Beyond the Bag program in 2021. In the state of Colorado Walmart is eliminating single use plastic bags from all their stores starting January 1st 2023. They have already done this in several other states. A new law in the State of Colorado starting this year mandates that customers must be charged ten cents for every single use bag they use when shopping. And as of January 2024 single use plastic bags are going to be banned in Colorado. This is a huge step in the right direction. 

Yet just the other day I read an article that stated Walmart was simply going to drive customers away and you would think that in today’s economy they would do everything necessary to retain customers. Yet Walmart is one of the few large corporations that are taking a public stand. Finally someone did. 

Additionally, I saw yet another article the other day that said in order for us to change our fate what we need is  collective global international action. I do believe this is true because we do need the involvement of big business and big government.  But that same article went on to say that individual action produces only inadequate trivial improvements. Yet time and time throughout history there have been small groups of committed citizens that have been the impetus behind enormous change. For example the transition of Iceland to almost 100% renewable energy started because of the efforts of a small group of farmers. Yet publications like this discourage people from taking small little steps toward sustainability because they believe they will not make a difference. 

Perhaps for the first time in history what we now see is that individual, as well as national interests,  have now converged with the collective interests of humankind. What this means is that we must work together and we must all take individual action because our choices do make changes. 

Over the past several years we have witnessed some remarkable things in the world. The pandemic changed our lives around in a matter of a couple of months. Now the war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on the global community. We now see civil unrest, insurrection and protest not seen in the United States since the 1960s. For the first time in decades there is talk of nuclear war for absolutely no reason.  Our world is changing so rapidly that practically no one feels any sort of personal security. 

Furthermore, we are depleting our natural resources and for the first time it is a very real possibility that we could see conflict over resources needed for our basic needs. This becomes an increasing possibility as long as we sit back, do nothing and simply maintain the status quo. Unless we take great steps toward ensuring a reasonable amount of equity and fairness for all humans on the planet to the point that everyone has some reasonable guarantee of survival with some sort of dignity we are going to see civil insurrection, mounting political tension, wars over resources and ultimately ecological implosion. 

Indeed governments and international organizations are going to have to work together with ordinary people in order to implement changes that serve the common good both nationally and abroad.  And how dare we complain when someone steps forward to push us in the right direction because the end result of maintaining the status quo is unimaginable human misery.

We have to step away from our consumer society and instead develop and a sustainable conserver society and that is ultimately our way forward. Yet a planned economic contraction hardly fits with our times. In fact, the resistance to such changes may very well be the greatest threat to our future and over coming such resistance may prove more difficult than the changes themselves. 

But anthropologist Joseph Tainter reminds us that one of the most interesting things about complex societies is the frequency with which their rise to greatness is interrupted by their failure and collapse. And could it be that our resistance to the needed changes that would guarantee our survival to the end of this century is the very thing that will result in our collapse. 

In my opinion, one thing is certain. Humanity needs a big dose of humility. We have to accept the fact that we still have much to learn.  Despite our advanced science and technology, nature is still able to do many things that we cannot. Even a simple pool of pond scum can live entirely on renewable energy, with enormous diversity, resilience, and almost infinite recycling. It is hard to believe that humanity cannot follow that simple example. 

Over 100 years ago Louis Pasteur said, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” Our best chance at surviving this century and our best way forward is by preparing to live sustainably. I truly think we are all going to have to prepare to make changes in our lives whether we like it or not. It is best to prepare your mind ahead of time and it is truly time to think about what kind of future we are leaving the next generation. 

Well folks that is it for this week. I truly hope this has been a very thought provoking episode and that it clearly shows you that our way forward is sustainability. If you do any one thing this week, change at least one simple thing in your life to something more sustainable and then talk about that to at least one other person. 

And in closing folks, if you truly enjoy the material that I produce then please take the time to leave me with a review and don’t forget to subscribe to the Adventures in Sustainable Living podcast as we all as my companion blog Off Grid Living News.

Until next week, this is your host Patrick signing off. Always remember to live sustainably because this is how we build a better future. 

Patrick