The Race for Resources in the Arctic

Adventures in Sustainable Living

Episode 142

The Race for Arctic Resources

Almost daily we hear something new about the affects of climate change. One of the more interesting things from a scientific perspective is that global warming is not uniform. Europe is warming faster than the US. Canada is warming twice as fast as other parts of the globe. And the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the planet. 

Global warming is producing some widespread affects many of which we are just starting to understand. The affects in the Arctic have been particularly concerning. Despite that, many people still treat this fact as an opportunity to exploit new resources. 

But why the sudden interest in what was formerly considered a no mans land? How will these changes affect our planet? And how could it affect all of us? 

Stay tuned for E142, The Race for Arctic resources. 

Welcome back everyone to the Adventures in Sustainable Living podcast. This is your host Patrick and this is E142 which is called The Race for Arctic Resources. 

Sometimes one of the most interesting, and unfortunate part of our human nature, is that despite dire circumstances, someone is always trying to turn a profit. On one hand scientist and environmentalist issue dire statements about how the world is falling apart around us while on the other hand someone is always looking to exploit a new opportunity. 

I have always questioned if constant economic growth is sustainable and what the outcome will be if we continue in that direction. This sort of economic model produces constant environmental pressure, habitat loss, and species extinction and yet that is the direction that we humans insist on pursuing. Instead of figuring out a way to reduce our need for resources and easing the pressure on the planet we find new ways to come up with more. And such is the case with the Arctic.

So what exactly is going on in the Arctic that will have an affect on all of us? 

Well, from a scientific perspective I do find it interesting that global warming is not uniform. It has become increasing obvious that some regions of the Earth are warming faster, especially the Arctic. The Earth is now about 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer compared to pre-industrial temperatures. But a recent study concluded that the Arctic is warming four time faster than the rest of the planet over the last 43 years. But why is that? 

Well, it mostly has to do with the sea ice. When the sea ice is covered with a layer of snow it reflects about 85% of solar radiation back into space. But the opposite happens with the oceans, which actually absorbs about 90% of solar radiation. 

When the Arctic is covered with ice it reflects most of the solar radiation. But as sea ice melts it creates a feed back loop which results in even more warming. With less sea ice, solar absorption rates increase. This causes even more ocean warming which in turn cause more sea ice to melt which causes even more ocean warming. 

This feedback loop is known as Arctic amplification and explains why the Arctic is warming at a much faster rate.

But there are other important climate components in the Arctic that we need to be concerned about. One of those is permafrost, which is a permanently frozen  layer of the Earth’s surface. Each summer the upper most portion of the permafrost thaws. This is referred to as the active layer. As temperatures in the Arctic increase the amount of the active layer that thaws each summer deepens. This is turn increases the biological activity in this layer which releases more carbon into the atmosphere.

It is estimated that the Arctic permafrost contains enough carbon to raise global temperatures by more than 3 degrees Celsius. If permafrost thawing accelerates, there is the potential for a runaway positive feedback loop called the permafrost carbon time bomb. The release of previously stored carbon dioxide and methane would contribute to further warming in the Arctic and accelerate future permafrost thawing. 

But while climate scientist are carefully watching and modeling the potential devastating affects of these changes the world’s greatest powers are very busy exerting the age-old rules of sovereignty: the first person to plant the flag controlls the resources as long as they could defend them. 

As the polar ice in the Arctic melts at unprecedented rates, the worlds largest economic powers are eyeing the region as a no man’s land up for grabs that contains enormous amounts of buried treasure.  

It is estimated that the Arctic contains 13% of the worlds undiscovered oil, 30% of its undiscovered gas, as well as an over abundance of uranium, rare earth minerals, gold, diamonds and fisheries of course. A US Geological Survey report published in 2008 estimated that the Arctic could hold 90 billion barrels of oil, 669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. If this holds true, the value of Arctic resources would be in the trillions of dollars. 

Understandably these dollar figures caught the attention of national governments that already hold territory in the Arctic Circle. Having access to these fossil fuels would improve national security. It would  diversify national energy supplies and reduce dependence on resources that historically have originated from troubled regions of the globe. These resources are of particular interest to world leaders  because existing resources in other areas on the planet are scarce or difficult to extract.

 Consequently, there is a race to lay claim to and exploit the resources in the Arctic because everyone wants them. 

But besides resources, there are other things at stake. 

Competition for Trading Routes

There is also competition for trading routes. Current forecasts suggest the Arctic Ocean will be ice free in the summer by 2040. Two new sea routes, the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, are already under development. For exporters moving bulk goods from Asia to the West and Europe, this could reduce shipping distances  as much as 40%. This is economically significant because 90% of world trading is moved by sea. Presently fewer than 100 vessels a year use the North Sea Route. But China is already looking to increase their movement of goods to as many as 200 to 300 vessels by the middle of the next decade.  

And of course there is already tension between the major powers over sovereignty of these new routes. 

The Race for Supremacy

And perhaps that tension is the reason there is also a race for supremacy.  With Arctic  sea ice melting, new land is opening up as well. This of course opens the gates to new development. Russia is already building several new bases in northern coastal settlements as well as on several islands. Other countries with land in the Arctic, such as the US and Canada, also find it easier to build and operate new naval and air bases in the Arctic. Additionally, large scale military exercises by both Russia and the US are becoming routine. And both sides are developing new ice breakers which would be important for military superiority in the Arctic climate.

China is also vying to gain a role in the Arctic. Many officials think this could undermine international rules and norms. China is certainly guilty of exhibiting predatory economic behavior elsewhere in the world and many think their government will repeat this behavior in the Arctic. It is hard to believe that there are now spy planes over the Arctic because this region is quickly becoming one of the most heavily militarized regions on the planet.

The Race for Fisheries

Melting sea ice has also created new opportunities in the fishing industry. Due to the lack of sea ice fishing vessels can now follow the migratory patterns of some fish species because fishing vessels can venture further north for longer periods of time. This could mean a boon for some countries.  

For example, 90 % of Greenland’s export revenue is generated from fishing. While cold water shrimp is a traditional export fisherman are now catching bluefin tuna and mackerel. 

The Race for Tourism

And of course there is now a new race to increase tourism. As the Arctic sea ice continues to recede, the cruise ship industry is looking to expand their routes. Just recently a mega ship with 6,000 passengers sailed to the tiny Norwegian Arctic port of Longyearbyen.

Such cruises offer an authentic experience of the local culture and the northern lights, all of which is now made more valuable due to the disappearing glaciers in the Arctic. But as you may know by now, traveling by cruise ship more than triples your environmental impact. Such voyages into a fragile region only contributes to the very pollution that is accelerating climate change. 

Heavy fuel oil is commonly used in the shipping industry. This is a cheap, dirty fuel that would be much more difficult to clean up from cold Arctic waters compared to more expensive lighter fuels.  

And that is not to even mention the safety concerns. Expansion of tourism into Arctic regions that were previously frozen will most likely lead to the use of vessels that are ill equipped for the harsh conditions. Imagine the sheer scale of what could happen if a ship carrying 7,000 passengers actually ran a ground. 

Conclusion

So, here is the thing to consider. We received our first warning of potential climate change 127 years ago. And still today people live in denial because many politicians refuse to accept the truth. Likewise, who would have thought the ice on the polar regions would actually melt. 

Now no one knows what to do. Climate change is now dealing us a double punch. There are few international treaties on who owns what and where. The retreating ice not only makes it easier to deploy the implements of modern warfare but it also increases the potential economic activity in the region.  Thus the race for supremacy. 

Furthermore, in a somewhat weird twist of irony, it is the very oil and mining companies that are responsible for a great deal of the climate change that stand to reap the greatest share of the profits as a result of a warming world and a melting Arctic. Billions of dollars have already been invested for new mining and extraction projects. 

The Race to Save the Arctic

But considering the potential devastating global effects produced by a melting Arctic, perhaps the only race we should focus on is saving it if we can. But it is sad to say that many believe that time has already passed. 

This new flurry of activity in the Arctic has the potential of furthering the already devastating affects of climate change. If the ice keeps melting, we are not only looking at rising sea levels but also the further destruction of natural habitats and the destruction of local communities. 

Ironically, it is the massive cost of staving off the worst of climate change that is also a major barrier to any effort to prevent it. However, historically we are already paying the toll whether we want to or not. 

Various weather events and climate disasters such as hurricanes, drought, flooding, wildfires, and winter storms have already lead to $2.2 trillion in losses since 1980. All across the US climate change is exacerbating extreme weather events. This extreme events continually cause severe damage to infrastructure, buildings, road, cropland, not to mention the loss of life. Over the last 5 years these billion dollar disasters have resulted in $765 billion in losses and more than 4,500 deaths. 

Clearly the costs of NOT acting to tackle climate change are much higher than the costs of taking action. And while the costs of potential impacts of climate change have risen the costs of many of the technologies for tackling climate change have fallen considerably. The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate concluded that the transition to a low carbon, sustainable economic growth model could result in an economic windfall of $26 trillion and create more than 65 million new jobs by 2030. 

I don’t think anyone can guess just how things are going to play out. But I do know that the policymakers and politicians that govern so much of our lives rely on economics to guide decision making and central to that task are economic models. 

Best guesses at this point of the monetary value of resources in the Arctic are $17.2 trillion. And while the mining and extraction industries are eyeing the potential benefits of such resources, we have to remember that the key to limiting global warming is decarbonizing the global economy. This means eliminating the use of fossil fuels as soon as possible especially in the Arctic. 

In my opinion it does not make economic sense if the resources in the Arctic are truly worth $17.2 trillion when a sustainable economic growth model could result in a windfall of $26 trillion. It only makes sense to those who will reap the profits in the short term while the rest of humanity suffers the results in the long term. This compares very directly to the fact the ExxonMobile knew back in 1980 the potential devastating affects of climate change and that the best way to avoid that was to reduce the use of fossil fuels. 

And yet humanity continues to reach for more. 

In 2016 the luxury cruise ship Crystal Serenity made history for being the first cruise ship to traverse the Northwest Passage. This ship had more than 1,500 passengers and made the journey from Anchorage, AK to New York City in three weeks. 

Knowing this just emphasizes the fact that if we do not change our course of action, we are just setting ourselves up for yet another titanic failure. 

This is your host Patrick sighing off until next week. Always remember to live sustainably because this how we build a better future.